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Research Papers: Structures and Safety Reliability

Study on the Effect of Climate Change on Ship Responses Based on Nonlinear Simulations

[+] Author and Article Information
Bingjie Guo

DNV GL,
Høvik 1322, Norway
e-mail: Bingjie.Guo@dnvgl.com

Odin Gramstad

DNV GL,
Høvik 1322, Norway
e-mail: Odin.Gramstad@dnvgl.com

Erik Vanem

DNV GL,
Høvik 1322, Norway
e-mail: Erik.Vanem@dnvgl.com

Elzbieta Bitner-Gregersen

DNV GL,
Høvik 1322, Norway
e-mail: Elzbieta.Bitner-Gregersen@dnvgl.com

Contributed by the Ocean, Offshore, and Arctic Engineering Division of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF OFFSHORE MECHANICS AND ARCTIC ENGINEERING. Manuscript received September 18, 2018; final manuscript received November 29, 2018; published online January 17, 2019. Assoc. Editor: Luis V. S. Sagrilo.

J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng 141(4), 041605 (Jan 17, 2019) (13 pages) Paper No: OMAE-18-1154; doi: 10.1115/1.4042182 History: Received September 18, 2018; Revised November 29, 2018

Hull girder ultimate strength governs sagging and hogging failures, which is one of the most critical failure modes for a ship hull. The structural reliability analysis methodology has been used to develop common structural rules for tankers and bulk carriers. A linear model for bending moment in extreme weather with a nonlinear correction factor has been adopted in the analysis. It is difficult to conclude on the model uncertainty associated with nonlinear effects of bending moment as, until now, there are few studies addressing this topic. In this paper, the nonlinear effect on ship responses is analyzed, and the potential effect of climate change on ship responses is investigated with the improved three-dimensional (3D) Rankine Panel method using nonlinear wave input. The nonlinear wave input is generated by the higher-order spectral method (HOSM) wave model incorporating higher-order nonlinear effects, including nonlinear free-wave modulation as well as higher-order bound harmonics. The past and projected future wave climates of selected locations in the North Atlantic and North Norwegian Sea are considered.

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Figures

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Fig. 1

Comparisons of ship motions and vertical bending moments between numerical simulations and model tests: (a) comparison of ship heave motions, (b) comparison of ship pitch motions, and (c) comparison of vertical bending moments at waterline

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Fig. 2

Wave elevation at x = 0 with different time steps

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Fig. 3

Comparisons of numerical waves and experimental data for the two selected irregular sea with Tp = 12 s and Hs = 9.7 m (left: γ = 6, right: γ = 3.3)

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Fig. 4

Comparisons of ship heave in irregular sea with Tp = 12 s, Hs = 9.7 m, and γ = 3.3 (left: heave crest; right: heave trough)

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Fig. 5

Comparisons of ship pitch motion in irregular sea with Tp = 12 s, Hs = 9.7 m, and γ = 3.3 (left: pitch crest; right: pitch trough)

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Fig. 6

Comparisons of midship ship bending moment at waterline in irregular sea with Tp = 12 s, Hs = 9.7 m, and γ = 3.3 (left: hogging moment; right: sagging moment)

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Fig. 7

Locations chosen for climate change study

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Fig. 8

Contour lines of 25-year wave conditions for different ensemble members in North Atlantic: (a) contour line for R2, (b) contour line for R9, and (c) contour line for R12

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Fig. 9

Comparisons of 4-h characteristic extreme value of heave motions from 25-year wave conditions at historical period and two projected future scenarios of R12 (Up: heave crests; down: heave troughs)

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Fig. 10

Comparisons of 4-h characteristic extreme value of pitch motions from 25-year wave conditions at historical period and two projected future scenarios of R12 (Up: pitch crests; down: pitch troughs)

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Fig. 11

Comparisons of 4-h characteristic extreme value of midship ship bending moment at waterline from 25-year wave conditions at historical period and two future scenarios of R12 (Up: sagging moment; down: hogging moment)

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Fig. 12

Contour lines of 25-year wave conditions for different ensemble members in Northern North Sea: (a) contour line for R2, (b) contour line for R9, and (c) contour line for R12

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Fig. 13

Comparisons of 4-h characteristic extreme value of heave motions from 25-year wave conditions at historical period and two projected future scenarios of R12 (Top: heave crests; bottom: heave troughs)

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Fig. 14

Comparisons of 4-h characteristic extreme value of pitch motions from 25-year wave conditions at historical period and two projected future scenarios of R12 (Top: pitch crests; bottom: pitch troughs)

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Fig. 15

Comparisons of 4-h characteristic extreme value of midship ship bending moment at waterline from 25-year wave conditions at historical period and two future scenarios of R12 (Top: sagging moment; bottom: hogging moment)

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Fig. 16

Crest distribution from HOSM simulations and experiments

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