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RESEARCH PAPERS: Offshore Mechanics

Statistical Uncertainties in Wave Heights and Combined Loads on Offshore Structures

[+] Author and Article Information
S. R. Winterstein

Department of Civil Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305

S. Haver

Statoil, Stavanger, Norway

J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng 113(2), 156-161 (May 01, 1991) (6 pages) doi:10.1115/1.2919912 History: Received February 16, 1990; Revised October 25, 1990; Online June 12, 2008

Abstract

Probabilistic models of combined environmental variables are shown, and their effect on the probability distribution of annual maximum base shear is estimated. A new “generalized Gumbel” model is introduced for the critical wave height parameter. By preserving higher statistical moments, this model better follows extreme storm events. Uncertainty in this model is included through statistical uncertainty in these moments. Corresponding reliability confidence intervals are also shown as a function of the sample size of hindcast data. Finally, models of the non-Gaussian crest and the drag parameter are found to be of similar importance in predicting the 100-yr base shear.

Copyright © 1991 by The American Society of Mechanical Engineers
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