A simple procedure is proposed in this paper to estimate the global failure probabilities of a submarine oil pipeline subjected to underwater explosion shock wave. The deterministic response of a pipeline subjected to an underwater shock loading is first given by solving a simplified fluid-structure interaction problem. Compared with an FEM/BEM coupling model, the present method gives good results at much lower computational efforts. Then, the Monte Carlo method is used to find the global failure probabilities of the pipeline. Finally, a practical example is given.