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TECHNICAL PAPERS

Ship Capsize Risk in a Seaway Using Fitted Distributions to Roll Maxima

[+] Author and Article Information
Kevin A. McTaggart

Defence Research Establishment Atlantic, 9 Grove Street, P.O. Box 1012, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia B2Y 3Z7, Canadae-mail: kevin.mctaggart@drea.dnd.ca

J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng 122(2), 141-146 (Feb 04, 2000) (6 pages) doi:10.1115/1.533736 History: Received December 10, 1999; Revised February 04, 2000
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References

de Kat, J. O., Brouwer, R., McTaggart, K., and Thomas, L., 1994, “Intact Ship Survivability in Extreme Waves: Criteria from a Research and Navy Perspective,” STAB ’94, Fifth International Conference on Stability of Ships and Ocean Vehicles, Melbourne, FL.
Mansour,  A. E., Wirsching,  P. H., Lucket,  M. D., Plumpton,  A. M., and Lin,  Y. H., 1997, “Structural Safety of Ships,” Soc. Nav. Archit. Mar. Eng., Trans., 105, pp. 61–98.
Sarchin,  T. H., and Goldberg,  L. L., 1962, “Stability and Buoyancy Criteria for U.S. Naval Surface Ships,” Soc. Nav. Archit. Mar. Eng., Trans., 70, pp. 418–458.
McTaggart, K. A., 1999, “Ship Capsize Risk in a Seaway Using Time Domain Simulations and Fitted Gumbel Distributions,” 18th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering—OMAE99, St. John’s, Newfoundland, Canada.
de Kat, J. O., 1993, “The Development of Survivability Criteria Using Numerical Simulations,” United States Coast Guard Vessel Stability Symposium ’93, New London, CT.
Hooft,  J. P., and Pieffers,  J. B. M., 1988, “Maneuverability of Frigates in Waves,” Marine Technol., 25, No. 4, pp. 262–271.
de Kat, J. O., and Thomas, W. L., 1998, “Extreme Rolling, Broaching, and Capsizing—Model Tests and Simulations of a Steered Ship in Waves,” 22nd Symposium on Naval Hydrodynamics, Washington, DC.
Dahle,  E. A., and Myrhaug,  D., 1994, “Risk Analysis Applied to Capsize of Smaller Vessels in Breaking Waves,” Trans R. Inst. Nav. Arch., 136, pp. 237–252.
Dahle,  E. A., and Myrhaug,  D., 1996, “Capsize Risk of Fishing Vessels,” Schiffstechnik (Ship Technology Research), 43, pp. 164–171.
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British Maritime Technology Limited, 1986, Global Wave Statistics, Unwin Brothers, London, UK.
Belenky, V., Degtyarev, A., Boukhanovsky, A., and Nechaev, Y., 1998, “Applications of Stochastic Processes for Probabilistic Ship Stability Assessment: Problems and Solutions,” Stochastic Processes and Their Applications, Corvallis, OR.
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Figures

Grahic Jump Location
Mean of estimated ln[−ln(1−P(CD))] versus number of simulations
Grahic Jump Location
Gumbel fits of roll exceedence probability versus roll angle for ten simulations of 1 h duration, Hs=9.5 m
Grahic Jump Location
Different Gumbel fits of hourly maximum roll exceedence probability versus roll angle, β=30 deg, Hs=9.5 m
Grahic Jump Location
Fits of hourly roll exceedence probability versus roll angle from different simulation durations, 50 realizations, Hs=9.5 m
Grahic Jump Location
Hourly maximum roll exceedence probability versus roll angle, Hs=11.5 m
Grahic Jump Location
Hourly maximum roll exceedence probability versus roll angle, Hs=9.5 m
Grahic Jump Location
Predicted mean and standard deviation of hourly maximum roll versus simulation duration, Hs=9.5 m
Grahic Jump Location
Standard deviation of estimated ln[−ln(1−P(CD))] versus number of simulations

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