Risk Assessment of Decommissioning Options Using Bayesian Networks

Michael Havbro Faber; Inger B. Kroon; Eva Kragh; David Bayly; Patrick Decosemaeker

doi:10.1115/1.1491974

Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering | Volume 124 | Issue 4 | TECHNICAL PAPERS

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TECHNICAL PAPERS

Risk Assessment of Decommissioning Options Using Bayesian Networks

Michael Havbro Faber, Inger B. Kroon, Eva Kragh, David Bayly and Patrick Decosemaeker

[+] Author and Article Information

Michael Havbro Faber

Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Institut für Baustatik und Konstruktion, Hönggerberg, HIL E32.3, Zürich, 8093, Switzerlande-mail: faber@ibk.baug.ethz.ch

Inger B. Kroon, Eva Kragh

COWI Consulting Engineers and Planners AS, Offshore Decommissioning Group, Parallelvej 15, DK-2800 Lyngby, Denmark

David Bayly, Patrick Decosemaeker

TOTALFINAELF Exploration Norge AS, Cessation Project Department, Postbox 168, 4001 Stavanger, Norway

J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng 124(4), 231-238 (Oct 22, 2002) (8 pages) doi:10.1115/1.1491974 History: Received July 01, 2001; Revised December 01, 2001; Online October 22, 2002

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References

Raiffa, H., and Schlaifer, R., 1961, Applied Statistical Decision Theory, Harvard Univ. Press, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, Mass.

Benjamin, J. R., and Cornell, C. A., 1970, Probability, Statistics and Decision for Civil Engineers, McGraw-Hill, NY.

Ditlevsen, O., and Madsen, H. O., 1996, Structural Reliability Methods, Wiley, Chichester.

Rackwitz, R., 2000, “Optimization-The Basis for Code-Making and Reliability Verification,” Journal of Structural Safety, 22, pp. 27–60.

Nathwani, J. S., Lind, N. C., and Pandey, M. D., 1997, Affordable Safety by Choice: the Life Quality Method, Institute for Risk Research, Univ. of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada.

Lindley, D. V., 1976, Introduction to Probability and Statistics from a Bayesian Viewpoint, Cambridge Univ. Press.

Faber, M. H., 1997, “Risk Based Structural Maintenance Planning,” Probabilistic Methods for Structural Design, Kluwer Academic Publishers, the Netherlands.

Jensen, F. V., 1996, An Introduction to Bayesian Networks, UCL Press Limited.

Madsen, H. O., Krenk, S., and Lind, N. C., 1986, Methods of Structural Safety, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.

JCSS, 2000, “Basic Notes on Resistance Models,” The Joint Committee on Structural Safety.

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Evans, A. W., and Verlander, N. Q., 1997, “What is Wrong with Criterion FN-Lines for Judging the Tolerability of Risk,” Risk Anal, 17(2), pp. 157–168.

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Havbro Faber M, Kroon IB, Kragh E, Bayly D, Decosemaeker P. Risk Assessment of Decommissioning Options Using Bayesian Networks. ASME. J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng. 2002;124(4):231-238. doi:10.1115/1.1491974.

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Risk Assessment of Decommissioning Options Using Bayesian Networks

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Figures

Principal flow diagram of a risk assessment

Decision tree for prior and posterior decision analysis

Decision tree for pre-posterior decision analysis

Illustration of a BPN

Illustration of the development of the risks of a decommissioning project

Milestone representation of the initiation steps of a decommissioning project

BPN modeling retraction, break loose, and ascent for a Condeep type GBS

Computed marginal probabilities of mission failure

Failure and costs diagram

BPN for step 7 given mission failure

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