Risk Assessment of Decommissioning Options Using Bayesian Networks

[+] Author and Article Information
Michael Havbro Faber

Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Institut für Baustatik und Konstruktion, Hönggerberg, HIL E32.3, Zürich, 8093, Switzerlande-mail: faber@ibk.baug.ethz.ch

Inger B. Kroon, Eva Kragh

COWI Consulting Engineers and Planners AS, Offshore Decommissioning Group, Parallelvej 15, DK-2800 Lyngby, Denmark

David Bayly, Patrick Decosemaeker

TOTALFINAELF Exploration Norge AS, Cessation Project Department, Postbox 168, 4001 Stavanger, Norway

J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng 124(4), 231-238 (Oct 22, 2002) (8 pages) doi:10.1115/1.1491974 History: Received July 01, 2001; Revised December 01, 2001; Online October 22, 2002
Copyright © 2002 by ASME
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Principal flow diagram of a risk assessment
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Decision tree for prior and posterior decision analysis
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Decision tree for pre-posterior decision analysis
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Illustration of the development of the risks of a decommissioning project
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Milestone representation of the initiation steps of a decommissioning project
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BPN modeling retraction, break loose, and ascent for a Condeep type GBS
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Computed marginal probabilities of mission failure
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Failure and costs diagram
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BPN for step 7 given mission failure



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