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TECHNICAL PAPERS

Risk Assessment of Decommissioning Options Using Bayesian Networks

[+] Author and Article Information
Michael Havbro Faber

Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Institut für Baustatik und Konstruktion, Hönggerberg, HIL E32.3, Zürich, 8093, Switzerlande-mail: faber@ibk.baug.ethz.ch

Inger B. Kroon, Eva Kragh

COWI Consulting Engineers and Planners AS, Offshore Decommissioning Group, Parallelvej 15, DK-2800 Lyngby, Denmark

David Bayly, Patrick Decosemaeker

TOTALFINAELF Exploration Norge AS, Cessation Project Department, Postbox 168, 4001 Stavanger, Norway

J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng 124(4), 231-238 (Oct 22, 2002) (8 pages) doi:10.1115/1.1491974 History: Received July 01, 2001; Revised December 01, 2001; Online October 22, 2002
Copyright © 2002 by ASME
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References

Raiffa, H., and Schlaifer, R., 1961, Applied Statistical Decision Theory, Harvard Univ. Press, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, Mass.
Benjamin, J. R., and Cornell, C. A., 1970, Probability, Statistics and Decision for Civil Engineers, McGraw-Hill, NY.
Ditlevsen, O., and Madsen, H. O., 1996, Structural Reliability Methods, Wiley, Chichester.
Rackwitz,  R., 2000, “Optimization-The Basis for Code-Making and Reliability Verification,” Journal of Structural Safety, 22, pp. 27–60.
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Lindley, D. V., 1976, Introduction to Probability and Statistics from a Bayesian Viewpoint, Cambridge Univ. Press.
Faber, M. H., 1997, “Risk Based Structural Maintenance Planning,” Probabilistic Methods for Structural Design, Kluwer Academic Publishers, the Netherlands.
Jensen, F. V., 1996, An Introduction to Bayesian Networks, UCL Press Limited.
Madsen, H. O., Krenk, S., and Lind, N. C., 1986, Methods of Structural Safety, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
JCSS, 2000, “Basic Notes on Resistance Models,” The Joint Committee on Structural Safety.
JCSS, 2000, “Basic Notes on Load Models,” The Joint Committee on Structural Safety.
Evans,  A. W., and Verlander,  N. Q., 1997, “What is Wrong with Criterion FN-Lines for Judging the Tolerability of Risk,” Risk Anal, 17(2), pp. 157–168.

Figures

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Principal flow diagram of a risk assessment
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Decision tree for prior and posterior decision analysis
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Decision tree for pre-posterior decision analysis
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Illustration of the development of the risks of a decommissioning project
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Milestone representation of the initiation steps of a decommissioning project
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BPN modeling retraction, break loose, and ascent for a Condeep type GBS
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Computed marginal probabilities of mission failure
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Failure and costs diagram
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BPN for step 7 given mission failure

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