Risk Assessment of Decommissioning Options Using Bayesian Networks

Michael Havbro Faber; Inger B. Kroon; Eva Kragh; David Bayly; Patrick Decosemaeker

doi:10.1115/1.1491974

Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering | Volume 124 | Issue 4 | TECHNICAL PAPERS

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TECHNICAL PAPERS

Risk Assessment of Decommissioning Options Using Bayesian Networks

Michael Havbro Faber, Inger B. Kroon, Eva Kragh, David Bayly and Patrick Decosemaeker

[+] Author and Article Information

Michael Havbro Faber

Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Institut für Baustatik und Konstruktion, Hönggerberg, HIL E32.3, Zürich, 8093, Switzerlande-mail: faber@ibk.baug.ethz.ch

Inger B. Kroon, Eva Kragh

COWI Consulting Engineers and Planners AS, Offshore Decommissioning Group, Parallelvej 15, DK-2800 Lyngby, Denmark

David Bayly, Patrick Decosemaeker

TOTALFINAELF Exploration Norge AS, Cessation Project Department, Postbox 168, 4001 Stavanger, Norway

J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng 124(4), 231-238 (Oct 22, 2002) (8 pages) doi:10.1115/1.1491974 History: Received July 01, 2001; Revised December 01, 2001; Online October 22, 2002

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Havbro Faber M, Kroon IB, Kragh E, Bayly D, Decosemaeker P. Risk Assessment of Decommissioning Options Using Bayesian Networks. ASME. J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng. 2002;124(4):231-238. doi:10.1115/1.1491974.

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Risk Assessment of Decommissioning Options Using Bayesian Networks

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Figures

Principal flow diagram of a risk assessment

Decision tree for prior and posterior decision analysis

Decision tree for pre-posterior decision analysis

Illustration of a BPN

Illustration of the development of the risks of a decommissioning project

Milestone representation of the initiation steps of a decommissioning project

BPN modeling retraction, break loose, and ascent for a Condeep type GBS

Computed marginal probabilities of mission failure

Failure and costs diagram

BPN for step 7 given mission failure

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