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TECHNICAL PAPERS

A Bayesian Model for the Probability Distribution of Fatigue Damage in Tubular Joints

[+] Author and Article Information
Ernesto Heredia-Zavoni, Roberto Montes-Iturrizaga

Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo, Eje Central Lázaro Cárdenas 152, San Bartolo Atepehuacan, México DF 07730

J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng 126(3), 243-249 (Sep 20, 2004) (7 pages) doi:10.1115/1.1782645 History: Received December 02, 2002; Revised September 15, 2003; Online September 20, 2004
Copyright © 2004 by ASME
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References

Figures

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Updated probability density function of crack depth A at t=0(tinsp=3)
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Probability distribution functions, am=2 mm
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Probability distribution functions, am=10 mm
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Reliability index, β, as function of time
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Effect of Weibull parameter B (prior pdf: lognormal)
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Effect of Weibull parameter B (prior pdf: uniform)
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Expected failure costs (tinsp=1 year)
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Expected failure costs (tinsp=3 years)
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Influence of a⁁/am on the pdf of the error variance σ2
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Probability of exceeding A=a(tinsp=3 years,t=10 years)
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Evolution of joint reliability (tinsp=1 year)
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Evolution of joint reliability (tinsp=3 years)
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Updated probability density function of crack depth A at t=0 if a crack is detected and measured (am=20 mm) at different times of inspection, tinsp
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Updated probability density function of crack depth A at t=0 if an inspection is carried out after three years (tinsp=3)

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