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TECHNICAL PAPERS

A Bayesian Model for the Probability Distribution of Fatigue Damage in Tubular Joints

[+] Author and Article Information
Ernesto Heredia-Zavoni, Roberto Montes-Iturrizaga

Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo, Eje Central Lázaro Cárdenas 152, San Bartolo Atepehuacan, México DF 07730

J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng 126(3), 243-249 (Sep 20, 2004) (7 pages) doi:10.1115/1.1782645 History: Received December 02, 2002; Revised September 15, 2003; Online September 20, 2004
Copyright © 2004 by ASME
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References

Heredia-Zavoni,  E., Zeballos,  A., and Esteva,  L., 2000, “Theoretical models and recorded response in the estimation of cumulative seismic damage on non-linear structures,” Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, 29, pp. 1779–1796.
Dharmavasan, S., and Peers, S. M. S., 1996, “Inspection, maintenance and repair planning and scheduling for tubular joints using reliability methods,” Fatigue in Offshore Structures, chap. 25, Vol. 2. Oxford and IBH Publishing Co.
Moan, T., and Song, R., 1998, “Implication of inspection updating on system fatigue reliability of offshore structures,” Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering (OMAE), ASME.
Sørensen, J. D., Faber, M. H., and Kroon, I. B., 1995, “Optimal reliability-based planning of experiments for POD curves,” Proceedings of the Fifth International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, Netherlands, 11–16 June.
DeGroot, M. H., 1988, “Probabilidad y Estadı́stica,” Addison-Wesley Iberoamericana, S.A., Wilmington, Delaware, E.U.A., 2nd ed.
Paris,  P., and Erdogan,  F., 1963, “A critical analysis of crack propagation laws,” Journal of Basic Engineering, ASME, 85, pp. 258–534.
Kirkemo,  F., 1988, “Applications of probabilistic fracture mechanics to offshore structures,” Applied Mechanics Review, ASME, 41, 2, pp. 61–84.
Newman,  J. R., and Raju,  I. S., 1981, “An Empirical Stress-Intensity Factor Equation for the Surface Crack,” Eng. Fract. Mech., 15, 1–2, pp. 185–192.
Moan, T., Vardål, O. T., and Johannesen J. M., 2000, “Probabilistic inspection planning of offshore structures,” Applications of Statistics and Probability, Civil Engineering and Risk Analysis, Vol. 1. Proceedings of the ICASP8 Conference, Australia, 12–15 dic., 1999, Robert E. Melchers and Mark G. Steward eds, Balkema, Rotterdam.
Bloch, A., Sørensen, J. D., and Faber, M. H., 2000, “Simplified Approach to Inspection Planning,” Specialty Conference on Probabilistic Mechanics and Structural Reliability, ASCE.

Figures

Grahic Jump Location
Expected failure costs (tinsp=1 year)
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Updated probability density function of crack depth A at t=0(tinsp=3)
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Probability distribution functions, am=2 mm
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Probability distribution functions, am=10 mm
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Reliability index, β, as function of time
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Effect of Weibull parameter B (prior pdf: lognormal)
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Effect of Weibull parameter B (prior pdf: uniform)
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Expected failure costs (tinsp=3 years)
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Influence of a⁁/am on the pdf of the error variance σ2
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Probability of exceeding A=a(tinsp=3 years,t=10 years)
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Evolution of joint reliability (tinsp=1 year)
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Evolution of joint reliability (tinsp=3 years)
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Updated probability density function of crack depth A at t=0 if a crack is detected and measured (am=20 mm) at different times of inspection, tinsp
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Updated probability density function of crack depth A at t=0 if an inspection is carried out after three years (tinsp=3)

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