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Safety and Reliability

A Monte Carlo Approach to Prediction of Extreme Response Statistics of Drag Dominated Offshore Structures

[+] Author and Article Information
Arvid Naess

Centre for Ships and Ocean Structures, and Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NO-7491, Trondheim, Norway

Oleg Gaidai

Centre for Ships and Ocean Structures, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NO-7491, Trondheim, Norway

J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng 130(4), 041601 (Sep 23, 2008) (6 pages) doi:10.1115/1.2948960 History: Received October 07, 2007; Revised April 27, 2008; Published September 23, 2008

The focus of the present paper is the extreme response statistics of drag dominated offshore structures subjected to harsh weather conditions. More specifically, severe sea states both with and without strong current are considered. The nature of the hydrodynamic forces acting on the structure becomes highly nonlinear. In addition to the drag forces, the so called inundation effect due to the wave elevation, corrected to include second order waves, is also taken into account. In the present paper, the Monte Carlo method along with a special extrapolation technique is applied. The proposed method opens up for the possibility to predict simply and efficiently long-term extreme response statistics, which is an important issue for the design of offshore structures.

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Copyright © 2008 by American Society of Mechanical Engineers
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Figures

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Figure 1

Sketch of the model structure and nodal representation

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Figure 2

Log plots of the mean crossing rates: Monte Carlo estimates ( *) along with 95% confidence bands (– –), and the saddle point approximation (○), σ=7.2cm

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Figure 3

Optimized log-log plots of the mean crossing rates: Monte Carlo estimates ( *) along with 95% confidence bands, linear extrapolation (– –), and the saddle point approximation (○)

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Figure 4

No current case: Log plots of the mean crossing rates: Monte Carlo estimates ( *) along with 95% confidence bands (– –), σ=7.5cm

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Figure 5

No current case: Optimized log-log plots of the mean crossing rates: Monte Carlo estimates ( *) along with 95% confidence bands and linear extrapolation (– –)

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Figure 6

Current case: Log plots of the mean crossing rates: Monte Carlo estimates ( *) along with 95% confidence bands (– –), σ=15.2cm

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Figure 7

Current case: optimized log-log plots of the mean crossing rates: Monte Carlo estimates ( *) along with 95% confidence bands and linear extrapolation (– –)

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