Safety and Reliability

Risk Based Structural Integrity Management of Marine Platforms Using Bayesian Probabilistic Nets

[+] Author and Article Information
Roberto Montes-Iturrizaga, Ernesto Heredia-Zavoni, Francisco Vargas-Rodríguez

 Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo, Eje Central Lázaro Cárdenas No. 152, Mexico, DF 07730, Mexico

Michael Havbro Faber

 Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, ETH Hönggerberg, CH-8093 Zürich, Switzerland

Daniel Straub

 Matrisk GmbH, CH-8093 Zürich, Switzerlandstraub@matrisk.com

Juan de Dios de la O

Gerencia de Mantenimiento Integral, PEMEX Exploración y Producción, Ciudad del Carmen, Campeche CP-24180, Mexico

J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng 131(1), 011602 (Dec 11, 2008) (10 pages) doi:10.1115/1.2979797 History: Received October 10, 2006; Revised November 09, 2007; Published December 11, 2008

The present paper introduces a general framework for integrity management of offshore steel jacket structures allowing for the risk based planning of inspections and maintenance activities with a joint consideration of various relevant deterioration and damage processes. The suggested approach relates the relevant deterioration and damage processes to damage states, which in turn may be related to the overall integrity of the jacket structural system as measured through the reserve strength ratio. Each state of degradation, irrespective of the cause, can then be assessed in terms of their impact on the annual probability of failure for the structure. Based on data and subjective information regarding the annual probabilities of occurrence of the relevant deterioration and damage processes, together with a probabilistic modeling of the quality of condition control, it is possible to assess the structural effect of each type of deterioration and damage phenomenon. This facilitates the development of a general framework for risk based integrity management. In the present work such a framework is formulated using Bayesian probabilistic networks for evaluating the time varying global structural reliability of jackets subject to progressive deterioration of its members due to the combined effect of different sources of damage. In principle, system effects, i.e., the effect of damage in one element of the structural system on the capacity of other elements, can also be accounted for through a Bayesian probabilistic net; however, this is not considered in this work.

Copyright © 2009 by American Society of Mechanical Engineers
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Figure 1

Model for corrosion degradation

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Figure 2

Bayesian network used for planning inspections

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Figure 3

Location of elements selected for RBI plans

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Figure 4

Probability of platform failure caused by failure of element 101-201 (Case 1)

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Figure 5

Expected value of γD for element 114-213 (Case 1)




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