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Research Papers: Piper and Riser Technology

Application of Statistical Analysis Techniques to Pipeline On-Bottom Stability Analysis

[+] Author and Article Information
Bassem S. Youssef

Research Associate
Centre for Offshore Foundation Systems,
Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Geotechnical Science and Engineering,
The University of Western Australia,
35 Stirling Highway,
Crawley, WA, 6009, Australia
e-mail: bassem.youssef@uwa.edu.au

Mark J. Cassidy

ARC Future Fellow
The LRET Chair in Offshore Foundations Centre for Offshore Foundation Systems,
UWA Oceans Institute,
Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Geotechnical Science and Engineering,
The University of Western Australia,
35 Stirling Highway,
Crawley, WA, 6009, Australia
e-mail: mark.cassidy@uwa.edu.au

Yinghui Tian

Research Associate
Centre for Offshore Foundation Systems,
Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Geotechnical Science and Engineering,
The University of Western Australia,
35 Stirling Highway,Crawley, WA, 6009, Australia
e-mail: yinghui.tian@uwa.edu.au

1Corresponding author.

Contributed by the Ocean, Offshore, and Arctic Engineering Division of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF OFFSHORE MECHANICS AND ARCTIC ENGINEERING. Manuscript received March 12, 2012; final manuscript received August 30, 2012; published online March 28, 2013. Assoc. Editor: Dong S. Jeng.

J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng 135(3), 031701 (Mar 28, 2013) (12 pages) Paper No: OMAE-12-1021; doi: 10.1115/1.4023204 History: Received March 12, 2012; Revised August 30, 2012

Offshore pipelines are increasingly being employed to transport offshore hydrocarbons to onshore processing facilities. Pipelines laid directly on the seabed are subject to a considerable hydrodynamic loading from waves and currents and must be accurately designed for on-bottom stability. Confidence in the stability of pipelines requires appropriate models for their assessment and, in this paper, particular emphasis is placed on achieving an integrated and balanced approach in considering the nonlinearities and uncertainties in the pipe structure, the reaction of the restraining soil, and the hydrodynamic loading applied. A statistical approach is followed by developing a response surface model for the pipeline maximum horizontal displacement within a storm, while including variability in parameters. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used in combination with the developed response surface model to calculate the extreme response statistics. The benefit of this approach is demonstrated and also used to investigate the sensitivity of the on-bottom pipeline simulation for a variety of model input parameters. These results provide guidance to engineers as to what uncertainties are worth reducing, if possible, before a pipe is designed.

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References

Figures

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Fig. 1

Details of (a) - sign convention adopted, and (b) components of the modeling program used

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Fig. 2

Details of the pipe-soil interaction model used

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Fig. 8

Proportional reduction in hydrodynamic loads (for node number 38)

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Fig. 7

Pipeline displacements with/without considering the hydrodynamic reductions

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Fig. 6

Pipeline displacements calculated with time in the deterministic analysis

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Fig. 5

Example of hydrodynamic loads at a time of 2580 s

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Fig. 4

Example of hydrodynamic loads at node number 38

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Fig. 3

Details of the pipeline used in the numerical experiments

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Fig. 9

CCD for case k = 2 (value of (h1, h2) of each design point)

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Fig. 10

Comparing the maximum horizontal displacement calculated by numerical simulation and by response surface polynomial

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Fig. 11

Probability of exceedance (10,000 simulations of response surface)

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Fig. 12

Accumulative average displacement (probability of exceedance using 10,000 simulations)

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Fig. 13

Probability of exceedance for three water depths

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Fig. 14

Comparison of the calculated probability of exceedance curves due to random waves (with mean input parameters) and variable input parameters (and 50% exceedance waves)

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