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Research Papers: Structures and Safety Reliability

A Comparative Simulation Study of the Annual Maxima and the Peaks-Over-Threshold Methods

[+] Author and Article Information
Sofia Caires

Deltares,
Boussinesqweg 1,
Delft 2629 HV, The Netherlands
e-mail: caires@deltares.nl

Contributed by the Ocean, Offshore, and Arctic Engineering Division of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF OFFSHORE MECHANICS AND ARCTIC ENGINEERING. Manuscript received March 18, 2015; final manuscript received April 27, 2016; published online June 3, 2016. Assoc. Editor: Carlos Guedes Soares.

J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng 138(5), 051601 (Jun 03, 2016) (14 pages) Paper No: OMAE-15-1029; doi: 10.1115/1.4033563 History: Received March 18, 2015; Revised April 27, 2016

In order to assess their relative merits in the context of the determination of metocean extremes, the annual maxima (AM) and the peaks over threshold (POT) approaches are compared in terms of their accuracy in estimating exceedance probabilities on the basis of time series with various lengths and with characteristic that mimic those of real time series, such as nonstationarity and serial dependence. Based on the results of this study, the use of the POT approach is recommended. Furthermore, the method of probability weighted moments (PWMs) is recommended for the estimation of the parameters of the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD).

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