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Technical Brief

Weight-Estimation Method of FPSO Topsides Considering the Work Breakdown Structure

[+] Author and Article Information
Ki-Su Kim

Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering,
Seoul National University,
1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu,
Seoul 08826, South Korea
e-mail: kisu2511@snu.ac.kr

Myung-Il Roh

Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering,
Research Institute of Marine Systems Engineering,
Seoul National University,
1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu,
Seoul 08826, South Korea
e-mail: miroh@snu.ac.kr

Sung-Min Lee

Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering,
Seoul National University,
1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu,
Seoul 08826, South Korea
e-mail: heaven603@snu.ac.kr

Han-Sung Kim

Technology Strategy Department,
Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering,
125 Namdaemun-ro, Jung-gu,
Seoul 04521, South Korea
e-mail: kzephyrk@dsme.co.kr

Hyunsik Ahn

Technology Strategy Department,
Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering,
125 Namdaemun-ro, Jung-gu,
Seoul 04521, South Korea
e-mail: ahnmotors@dsme.co.kr

1Corresponding author.

Contributed by the Ocean, Offshore, and Arctic Engineering Division of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF OFFSHORE MECHANICS AND ARCTIC ENGINEERING. Manuscript received March 27, 2017; final manuscript received August 16, 2017; published online October 4, 2017. Assoc. Editor: Jonas W. Ringsberg.

J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng 140(1), 014501 (Oct 04, 2017) (10 pages) Paper No: OMAE-17-1045; doi: 10.1115/1.4037828 History: Received March 27, 2017; Revised August 16, 2017

With the recent international economic downturn, most engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractors are incurring deficits in their floating, production, storage, and offloading unit (FPSO) projects. Numerous reasons underpin these situations. One of the most important reasons is the cost-estimation failure. The cost estimation is the key contractual point and mainly depends on a weight estimation of the FPSO topsides. Because the topsides contain a lot of equipment and complex structures, it is very difficult to make an estimation at the contractual stage. To overcome this problem, many methods have been proposed to estimate the weight of offshore topsides; however, most of the methods involve the top–down approach, making it difficult to obtain a sufficiently accurate prediction for field-work usage in terms of the weight estimation. Therefore, a work breakdown structure (WBS) for the performance of the weight-estimation process is proposed in this study. Using the WBS of the FPSO topsides, the corresponding presentation of the weight-estimation process makes the process usable in the field work regarding the WBS-item estimations. Accordingly, estimates of the detailed units (disciplines, modules, and areas) inside the topside that were previously not possible were performed. In addition, a prototype program was developed using the proposed method, and the applicability of the proposed method was evaluated through the application of three projects.

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Figures

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Fig. 2

WBS hierarchy of the FPSO topsides for the weight estimation

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Fig. 3

Process for creation of the weight estimation models

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Fig. 4

Screenshot of the prototype program for the weight estimation of the FPSO topsides

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Fig. 8

Graph of the estimation results of Project A

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Fig. 9

Graph of the estimation results of the three projects

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Fig. 1

Concept of the weight-estimation process for the FPSO topsides

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Fig. 5

Regression results of the weight-estimation model for the plate using a statistical method

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Fig. 6

Regression results of the weight-estimation model for pipes under 6 in using a statistical method

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Fig. 7

Regression results of the weight-estimation model for the pipes under 6 in using an optimization method

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