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Statistical Uncertainty Analysis in Time-Domain Fatigue Assessment of Steel Risers

[+] Author and Article Information
Rodrigo Carneiro da Costa

Graduate Research Assistant, Laboratory of Analysis and Reliability of Offshore Structures, Department of Civil Engineering, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro COPPE/UFRJ, Av. Pedro Calmon, s/n, Rio de Janeiro, RJ - 21941-596, Brazil
rccosta.ec@gmail.com

Luis V. S. Sagrilo

Professor, Laboratory of Analysis and Reliability of Offshore Structures, Department of Civil Engineering, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro COPPE/UFRJ, Av. Pedro Calmon, s/n, Rio de Janeiro, RJ - 21941-596, Brazil
sagrilo@coc.ufrj.br

1Corresponding author.

ASME doi:10.1115/1.4038583 History: Received June 06, 2016; Revised November 16, 2017

Abstract

This paper addresses the statistical uncertainty in long-term fatigue damage in offshore structures due to the short-term simulation length used in time domain analysis of stresses. The paper focuses on steel risers applications. A new simulation-based estimator for the variance of the short-term fatigue damage is presented. The proposed estimator is based on a variation of the original non-parametric bootstrap. It works with blocks of data instead of discrete values, in order to better account for the autocorrelation of the stress cycles in the stress time series. This versatile estimator can be applied in time-domain fatigue analyses to assess the variance of the fatigue damage using a single stress time series and does not require any previous assumptions on the stochastic stress process.

Copyright (c) 2017 by ASME
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