Risk Analysis of Running a Deep-Water Production Test From a Dynamically Positioned Vessel in the North Atlantic

[+] Author and Article Information
Marc A. Maes

University of Calgary, Civil Engineering Department, T2N 1N4 Calgary, Alberta, Canadae-mail: mamaes@ucalgary.ca

Jeff Sinclair

EnCana Corporation, 150, 9th Avenue SW, PO Box 2850, T2P 2S5 Calgary, Alberta, Canadae-mail: jeff.sinclair@encana.com

David B. Lewis

Blade Energy Partners, 6801 Gaylord Parkway, Frisco, Texas, 75034e-mail: dlewis@blade-energy.com

J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng 127(1), 52-58 (Mar 23, 2005) (7 pages) doi:10.1115/1.1854706 History: Received November 28, 2003; Revised October 13, 2004; Online March 23, 2005
Copyright © 2005 by ASME
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Grahic Jump Location
Mean number of disconnects for a 3-day PT performed during a given month (no short-term weather or ice forecasting)
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Total expected value of the loss E(CV(T)) in millions of dollars (Canadian) for a PT performed during a given month (T=7 days)
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Frequency-Consequence Diagram for the total risk C(T) during July and January (T=3 days) expressed in millions of dollars (Canadian)
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Probability of disconnect and probability of vessel impact, associated with various shipping and ice hazards, during a 3-day PT
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Hourly probability of disconnect due to iceberg hazards
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Hourly probability of disconnect due to sea ice hazards in the absence of ice forecasting
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Total environmental thrust as a function of significant wave height and codirectional current speed for head-on DP vessel orientation



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