Research Papers: Structures and Safety Reliability

An Expert-Based Model for Reliability Analysis of Arctic Oil and Gas Processing Facilities

[+] Author and Article Information
Masoud Naseri

Department of Engineering and Safety,
UiT—The Arctic University of Norway,
P. O. Box 6050 Langnes,
Tromsø 9037, Norway
e-mail: masoud.naseri@uit.no

Javad Barabady

Department of Engineering and Safety,
UiT—The Arctic University of Norway,
P. O. Box 6050 Langnes,
Tromsø 9037, Norway
e-mail: javad.barabady@uit.no

1Corresponding author.

Contributed by the Ocean, Offshore, and Arctic Engineering Division of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF OFFSHORE MECHANICS AND ARCTIC ENGINEERING. Manuscript received April 9, 2015; final manuscript received June 1, 2016; published online July 22, 2016. Assoc. Editor: Yi-Hsiang Yu.

J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng 138(5), 051602 (Jul 22, 2016) (13 pages) Paper No: OMAE-15-1031; doi: 10.1115/1.4033932 History: Received April 09, 2015; Revised June 01, 2016

Oil and gas companies are expanding their operations in the remote Arctic offshore with harsh weather conditions such as the Barents Sea. One of the major challenges in reliability assessment of production plants operating in such areas is lack of life data accounting for the adverse effects of harsh operating conditions. The aim of this study is to develop an expert-based model to assess the reliability of oil and gas exploration and production plants operating in Arctic regions. Expert opinions are used to modify the life data available in normal-climate locations, which are considered as the base area, to account for the effects of operating conditions. The proposed model is illustrated by assessing the reliability of an oil processing train in the Western Barents Sea. Additionally, based on a criticality analysis, some design modifications are suggested to improve the reliability of the processing train.

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Fig. 1

Illustration of a typical oil and gas separation plant

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Fig. 2

Experts' and DM's CDF of the reductions in MTTF of TC

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Fig. 3

DM's PDFs fEiDM(ε) for the reductions in MTTF of system components

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Fig. 4

DM's CDFs FEiDM(ε) for the reductions in MTTF of system components

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Fig. 5

Fault tree diagram for OE failure

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Fig. 6

Reliability of the oil processing train operating in the base area and the Barents Sea

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Fig. 7

PDF (a) and CDF (b) of the reliability of oil processing train in the Barents Sea after 1month

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Fig. 8

PDFs of the criticality importance measures at t=720 hrs for system components

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Fig. 9

PDFs of estimated system reliabilities at t=720 hrs corresponding to different design modification scenarios



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