Research Papers: Structures and Safety Reliability

Time-Variant Ultimate Reliability Analysis of Jacket Platforms Considering a New Probabilistic Corrosion Model for the Persian Gulf

[+] Author and Article Information
Hossein Gholami

Civil Engineering Faculty,
K.N. Toosi University of Technology,
No. 1346, Vali Asr Street, Mirdamad Intersection,
Tehran 1996715433, Iran
e-mail: Hosein.Gholami@Gmail.com

Behrouz Asgarian

Civil Engineering Faculty,
K.N. Toosi University of Technology,
No. 1346, Vali Asr Street, Mirdamad Intersection,
Tehran 1996715433, Iran
e-mail: Asgarian@kntu.ac.ir

Saeed Asil Gharebaghi

K.N. Toosi University of Technology,
Civil Engineering Faculty,
No. 1346, Vali Asr Street, Mirdamad Intersection,
Tehran 1996715433, Iran
e-mail: Asil@kntu.ac.ir

Contributed by the Ocean, Offshore, and Arctic Engineering Division of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF OFFSHORE MECHANICS AND ARCTIC ENGINEERING. Manuscript received November 17, 2017; final manuscript received May 31, 2018; published online July 24, 2018. Assoc. Editor: Nianzhong Chen.

J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng 140(6), 061601 (Jul 24, 2018) (10 pages) Paper No: OMAE-17-1204; doi: 10.1115/1.4040505 History: Received November 17, 2017; Revised May 31, 2018

Corrosion is identified as one of the most important deterioration factors for structural integrity of offshore platforms. For reliability analysis of these platforms, a probabilistic model for prediction of long-term corrosion loss as a function of time is essential. The purpose of this study is to propose a novel model for steel corrosion of jacket platforms in the Persian Gulf region. Field measurements for members in seawater are collected and statistically analyzed to identify the probability function for corrosion loss at different times. A new probabilistic model with time-dependent parameters is suggested, based on the statistical analysis results. Application of above-mentioned model in the reliability analysis of jacket platforms is investigated by introducing a new reliability analysis framework. This framework is a general solution for probabilistic analysis of jacket platforms with several stochastic variables which can be used for the platforms with different configuration and loads. In this framework, direct analysis is performed in each stage of first-order reliability method (FORM) instead of using the response surface method which is a common approach to obtaining the required response. This framework is applied to three jackets and the annual probability of failure (Pf) over the platforms service life is computed. Comparison of results revealed that among the years beyond the platform design life, the amount of annual Pf is increased in parabolic function. Also, studying the results is illustrated that in the case of ignoring the corrosion loss as a stochastic variable, Pf is estimated 7% lower than values obtained in actual condition.

Copyright © 2018 by ASME
Your Session has timed out. Please sign back in to continue.


Melchers, R. E. , 2003, “ Probabilistic Model for Marine Corrosion of Steel for Structural Reliability Assessment,” J. Struct. Eng., 129(11), pp. 1484–1493. [CrossRef]
Velazquez, J. , Weide, J. , Hernandez, E. , and Hernandez, H. H. , 2014, “ Statistical Modelling of Pitting Corrosion: Extrapolation of the Maximum Pit Depth Growth,” Int. J. Electrochem. Sci., 9(8), pp. 4129–4143. http://www.electrochemsci.org/papers/vol9/90804129.pdf
Paik, J. K. , and Melchers, R. E. , 2008, “ Corrosion Wastage in Aged Structures,” Condition Assessment of Aged Structures, 1st ed., Woodhead Publishing, Cambridge, UK.
HSE, 2016, “Offshore Hydrocarbon Release Statistics and Analysis 1992-2015,” Health and Safety Executive, Bootle, UK.
Melchers, R. E. , 2003, “ Modeling of Marine Immersion Corrosion for Mild and Low-Alloy Steels—Part 1: Phenomenological Model,” Corrosion, 59(4), pp. 319–334. [CrossRef]
Melchers, R. E. , 2003, “ Probabilistic Models for Corrosion in Structural Reliability Assessment—Part 2: Models Based on Mechanics,” ASME J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng., 125(4), pp. 272–280. [CrossRef]
Southwell, C. R. , Bultman, J. D. , and Hummer, C. W. , 1979, “ Estimating Service Life of Steel in Seawater,” Seawater Corrosion Handbook, M. Schumacher , ed., Noyes Data, Park Ridge, NJ, pp. 374–387.
Reinhart, F. M. , and Jenkins, J. F. , 1972, “ Corrosion of Materials in Surface Seawater After 12 and 18 Months of Exposure,” Naval Civil Engineering Laboratory, Port Hueneme, CA, Technical Note No. N-1213.
Evans, U. R. , 1966, The Corrosion and Oxidation of Metals: Scientific Principles and Practical Applications, Edward Arnold Publishers, London, pp. 819–849.
Tomashev, N. D. , 1996, Theory of Corrosion and Protection of Metals, The MacMillan, New York.
Chernov, B. B. , and Ponomarenko, S. A. , 1991, “ Physico-Chemical Modelling for the Prediction of Seawater Metal Corrosion,” 10th International Congress on Marine Corrosion and Fouling, University of Melbourne, Australia.
Yamamoto, N. , and Ikegami, K. , 1998, “ A Study on the Degradation of Coating and Corrosion of Ship's Hull Based on the Probabilistic Approach,” ASME J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng., 120(3), pp. 121–128. [CrossRef]
Soares, C. G. , Garbatov, Y. , Zayed, A. , and Wang, G. , 2009, “ Influence of Environmental Factors on Corrosion of Ship Structures in Marine Atmosphere,” Corros. Sci., 51(9), pp. 2014–2026. [CrossRef]
Qin, S. , and Cui, W. , 2003, “ Effect of Corrosion Models on the Time-Dependent Reliability of Steel Plated Elements,” Mar. Struct., 16(1), pp. 15–34. [CrossRef]
Garbatov, Y. , Guedes Soares, C. , and Wang, G. , 2007, “ Non-Linear Time Dependent Corrosion Wastage of Deck Plates of Ballast and Cargo Tanks of Tankers,” ASME J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng., 129(1), pp. 48–55. [CrossRef]
Bin Mohd, M. , Woo Kim, D. , Joon Lee, B. , Kim, D. , Kwan Seo, J. , and Kee Paik, J. , 2014, “ On the Burst Strength Capacity of an Aging Subsea Gas Pipeline,” ASME J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng., 136(4), p. 041402. [CrossRef]
Ilman, M. N. , and Kusmono , 2014, “ Analysis of Internal Corrosion in Subsea Oil Pipeline,” Case Stud. Eng. Failure Anal., 2(1), pp. 1–8. [CrossRef]
Yang, Y. , Khan, F. , Thodi, P. , and Abbassi, R. , 2017, “ Corrosion Induced Failure Analysis of Subsea Pipelines,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 159, pp. 214–222. [CrossRef]
Jones, D. , 1996, Principles and Prevention of Corrosion, 2nd ed., Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ.
LaQue, F. L. , 1975, Marine Corrosion—Causes and Prevention, Wiley, New York.
Anderson, T. W. , and Darling, D. A. , 1954, “ A Test of Goodness-of-Fit,” J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 49(268), pp. 765–769. [CrossRef]
Benjamin, J. R. , and Cornell, A. , 1970, Probability, Statistics and Decision for Civil Engineers, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Shoukri, M. M. , Mian, I. U. M. , and Tracy, D. S. , 1988, “ Sampling Properties of Estimators of the Log-Logistic Distribution With Application to Canadian Precipitation Data,” Can. J. Stat., 16(3), pp. 223–236. [CrossRef]
Mazzoni, S. , McKenna, F. , Scott, M. H. , Fenves, G. L. , and Jeremic, B. , 2007, “ OpenSees Command Language Manual,” Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center, Berkeley, CA, accessed June 14, 2018, http://OpenSees.berkeley.edu
Haukaas, T. , 2007, “Engineering Decision Making With Numerical Simulation Models,” University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Iranian Ports & Maritime Organization, 2013, “Iranian Offshore Structural Design Procedure, No: 300-9,” Ministry of Roads and Transportation, Tehran, Iran, accessed June 14, 2018, http://www.bhrc.ac.ir/Portals/8/PropertyAgent/1567/Files/1328/Code300-9.pdf (in Persian).
South Pars Project Document, 2009, “ Structural Design Basis & Design Brief,” Tehran, Iran.
Yae, M. W. J. , 2012, “ Localization of Surface or Near‐Surface Drifting Mines for Unmanned Systems in the Persian Gulf,” Master's thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/7436
JCSS, 2001, “Probabilistic Model Code—Part 3: Resistance Models,” Joint Committee on Structural Safety, Technical university of Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark, accessed June 14, 2018, http://www.jcss.ethz.ch/
Chakrabarti, S. K. , 1987, “ Hydrodynamics of Offshore Structures,” Computational Mechanics, Billerica, MA, accessed June 14, 2018, https://www.scribd.com/document/198558306/Hydrodynamics-of-Offshore-Structures-S-K-Chakrabarti-2
Bentley Systems, 2018, “SACS (Structural Analysis Computer Software) Release 5.1,” Bentley Systems, Pennsylvania, PA.


Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 1

Variation of corrosion loss mean value in time

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 2

Variation of variance in time

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 3

Probabilistic diagram for 35 years of the platform lifetime at the 95% confidence interval

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 4

The log-logistic PDF obtained from measurement data of different years of the platform lifetime

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 5

Approximation of the shape parameter in the log-logistic model

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 6

Approximation of the scale parameter in the log-logistic model

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 7

Comparison of the scale parameter resulted from the probabilistic model and measurement data

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 8

Comparison of the shape parameter resulted from the probabilistic model and measurement data

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 9

Overview of reliability analysis

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 10

Overview environmental loads computation

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 11

Verification of wave force generation

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 12

Overview of capacity determination

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 14

Variations of the probability of failure over time: (a) jacket 1, (b) jacket 2, and (c) jacket 3

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 13

Illustration of finite element model of jacket 1, 2, and 3: (a) jacket 1, (b) jacket 2, and (c) jacket 3



Some tools below are only available to our subscribers or users with an online account.

Related Content

Customize your page view by dragging and repositioning the boxes below.

Related Journal Articles
Related eBook Content
Topic Collections

Sorry! You do not have access to this content. For assistance or to subscribe, please contact us:

  • TELEPHONE: 1-800-843-2763 (Toll-free in the USA)
  • EMAIL: asmedigitalcollection@asme.org
Sign In