Standard (black-box) regression models may not necessarily suffice for accurate identification and prediction of thermal dynamics in buildings. This is particularly apparent when either the flow rate or the inlet temperature of the thermal medium varies significantly with time. To this end, this paper analytically derives, using physical insight, and investigates linear regression models (LRMs) with nonlinear regressors (NRMs) for system identification and prediction of thermal dynamics in buildings. Comparison is performed with standard linear regression models with respect to both (a) identification error and (b) prediction performance within a model-predictive-control implementation for climate control in a residential building. The implementation is performed through the EnergyPlus building simulator and demonstrates that a careful consideration of the nonlinear effects may provide significant benefits with respect to the power consumption.
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February 2017
Research-Article
Regression Models for Output Prediction of Thermal Dynamics in Buildings
Georgios C. Chasparis,
Georgios C. Chasparis
Department of Data Analysis Systems,
Software Competence Center Hagenberg GmbH,
Softwarepark 21,
Hagenberg 4232, Austria
e-mail: georgios.chasparis@scch.at
Software Competence Center Hagenberg GmbH,
Softwarepark 21,
Hagenberg 4232, Austria
e-mail: georgios.chasparis@scch.at
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Thomas Natschlaeger
Thomas Natschlaeger
Department of Data Analysis Systems,
Software Competence Center Hagenberg GmbH,
Softwarepark 21,
Hagenberg 4232, Austria
e-mail: thomas.natschlaeger@scch.at
Software Competence Center Hagenberg GmbH,
Softwarepark 21,
Hagenberg 4232, Austria
e-mail: thomas.natschlaeger@scch.at
Search for other works by this author on:
Georgios C. Chasparis
Department of Data Analysis Systems,
Software Competence Center Hagenberg GmbH,
Softwarepark 21,
Hagenberg 4232, Austria
e-mail: georgios.chasparis@scch.at
Software Competence Center Hagenberg GmbH,
Softwarepark 21,
Hagenberg 4232, Austria
e-mail: georgios.chasparis@scch.at
Thomas Natschlaeger
Department of Data Analysis Systems,
Software Competence Center Hagenberg GmbH,
Softwarepark 21,
Hagenberg 4232, Austria
e-mail: thomas.natschlaeger@scch.at
Software Competence Center Hagenberg GmbH,
Softwarepark 21,
Hagenberg 4232, Austria
e-mail: thomas.natschlaeger@scch.at
1Corresponding author.
Contributed by the Dynamic Systems Division of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF DYNAMIC SYSTEMS, MEASUREMENT, AND CONTROL. Manuscript received October 2, 2015; final manuscript received August 22, 2016; published online November 10, 2016. Assoc. Editor: Umesh Vaidya.
J. Dyn. Sys., Meas., Control. Feb 2017, 139(2): 021006 (9 pages)
Published Online: November 10, 2016
Article history
Received:
October 2, 2015
Revised:
August 22, 2016
Citation
Chasparis, G. C., and Natschlaeger, T. (November 10, 2016). "Regression Models for Output Prediction of Thermal Dynamics in Buildings." ASME. J. Dyn. Sys., Meas., Control. February 2017; 139(2): 021006. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4034746
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