Probabilistic Structural Analysis for Advanced Space Propulsion Systems

This paper reports on recent extensions to ongoing research into probabilistic structural analysis modeling of advanced space propulsion system hardware. The advances concern probabilistic dynamic loading, and probabilistic nonlinear material behavior. In both cases, the reported work represents a significant advance in the state-of-the-art for these topics. Random, or probabilistic loading is normally concerned with the loading described in power spectral density (PSD) terms. The current work describes a method for incorporating random PSD’s along with random material properties, damping, and structural geometry. The probabilistic material response is concerned with the prediction of nonlinear stress-strain behavior for physical processes that can be linked to the original microstructure of the material. Such variables as grain size and orientation, grain boundary strength, etc., are treated as random, initial variables in generating stochastic stress-strain curves. The methodology is demonstrated for a creep simulation.