In Part 1 of this paper, it was shown that statistical models using pooled data are of poor quality with very wide variability. The present paper considers probabilistic corrosion modelling based on corrosion mechanics principles and notes the effect of environmental and other factors that should be included in model development. These include temperature, dissolved oxygen, salinity, calcium carbonate and pH, water velocity, and marine growth. A new multi-phase, nonlinear mean value model is proposed for the corrosion of mild- and low-alloy steels under “at-sea” immersion conditions. Comments are made about calibration of the model and the further research required for complete model development is discussed.
Issue Section:
Technical Papers
1.
Melchers
, R. E.
, 2003
, “Probabilistic Models of Corrosion for Reliability Assessment and Maintenance Planning-Part 1: Empirical Models
,” ASME J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng.
, 125
(4
), pp. 264
–271
.2.
Ambler
, H. R.
, and Bain
, A. A. J.
, 1955
, “Corrosion of metals in the Tropics
,” J. of Applied Chemistry
, 5
, pp. 437
–467
.3.
Evans, U. R., 1960, The Corrosion and Oxidation of Metals: Scientific Principles and Practical Applications, Edward Arnold, London.
4.
Hudson
, J. C.
, 1950
, “Corrosion of Bare Iron and Steel in Sea Water
,” J. of the Iron and Steel Inst.
, 166
, pp. 123
–136
.5.
Lebedev
, A. N.
, and Derbyshev
, A. S.
, 1978
, “Kinetics of Carbon Steel Corrosion in Caspian Sea Water and Chloride Solutions
,” Prot. Met.
, 14
(6
), pp. 575
–577
.6.
Southwell, C. R., Bultman, J. D., and Hummer, Jr, C. W., 1979, “Estimating Service Life of Steel in Seawater,” (in) Schumacher, M. (ed), Seawater Corrosion Handbook, Noyes Data Corporation, New Jersey, pp. 374–387.
7.
Uhlig, H. H., 1963, Corrosion and Corrosion Control, John Wiley & Sons, New York.
8.
Hudson
, J. C.
, and Stanners
, J. F.
, 1955
, “The Corrosion Resistance of Low Alloy Steels
,” J. of the Iron and Steel Inst.
, 180
, pp. 271
–284
.9.
Schultze
, W. A.
, and van der Wekken
, C. J.
, 1976
, “Influence of Alloying Elements on the Marine Corrosion of Low Alloy Steels Determined by Statistical Analysis of Published Literature Data
,” Br. Corros. J., London
, 11
(1
), pp. 18
–24
.10.
Schumacher, M. (ed), 1979, Seawater Corrosion Handbook, Noyes Data Corporation, New Jersey.
11.
Reinhart, F. M., and Jenkins, J. F., 1972, “Corrosion of Materials in Surface Seawater After 12 and 18 Months of Exposure,” Technical Note N-1213, Naval Civil Eng. Laboratory, Port Hueneme, CA.
12.
Yamamoto
, N.
, and Ikegami
, K.
, 1998
, “A Study on the Degradation of Coating and Corrosion of Ship’s Hull Based on the Probabilistic Approach
,” ASME J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng.
, 120
(3
), pp. 121
–128
.13.
Kondo
, Y.
, 1987
, “Prediction Method of Corrosion Fatigue Crack Initiation Life Based on Corrosion Pit Growth Mechanism
,” Trans. Jpn. Soc. Mech. Eng.
, 53
(495
), pp. 1983
–1987
.14.
Chernov
, B. B.
, Pustovskikh
, T. B.
, and Chertskova
, G. M.
, 1989
, “Evaluation of the Maximum Corrosion Rate of Metals in Seawater
,” Prot. Met.
, 25
(4
), pp. 507
–509
.15.
Chernov
, B. B.
, 1990
, “Predicting the Corrosion of Steels in Seawater From its Physiochemical Characteristics
,” Prot. Met.
, 26
(2
), pp. 238
–241
.16.
Chernov
, B. B.
, and Ponomarenko
, S. A.
, 1991
, “Physiochemical Modelling of Metal Corrosion in Seawater
,” Prot. Met.
, 27
(5
), pp. 612
–615
.17.
Melchers R. E., 1997, “Modeling of Marine Corrosion of Steel Specimens,” Corrosion Testing in Natural Waters, Second Volume, R. M. Kain and W. T. Young, eds., ASTM STP 1300, Philadelphia, PA, pp. 20–33.
18.
Jeffrey, R., and Melchers, R. E., 1999, “Influence of Environmental Factors on the Early Corrosion of Steel in Coastal Seawater,” Proc. Australian Corrosion Association Conf., Sydney, Australia Paper No. 32 (CD-ROM).
19.
Melchers, R. E., 1998, “Probabilistic Modelling of Immersion Marine Corrosion,” Proc. Conf. Corrosion & Prevention, Nov. 9–12, Hobart, Paper No. 021 (CD-ROM).
20.
Jones, D. A., 1996, Principles and Prevention of Corrosion, Second Edition, Prentice-Hall.
21.
Tomashev, N. D., 1966, Theory of Corrosion and Protection of Metals, The MacMillan Co., New York, NY.
22.
Little
, B. J.
, and Wagner
, P. A.
, 1993
, “Interrelationship Between Marine Biofouling and Cathodic Protection
,” Mat. Perf.
, Sept., pp. 16
–20
.23.
Phull, B. S., Pikul, S. J., and Kain, R. M., 1997, “Seawater Corrosivity Around the World—Results From Five Years of Testing,” in Corrosion Testing in Natural Waters; Second Volume, R. M. Kain and W. T. Young, eds., ASTM STP 1300, Philadelphia, PA, pp. 34–73.
24.
Melchers, R. E., and Ahammed, M., 1994, “Nonlinear Modelling of Corrosion of Steel in Marine Environments,” Research Report 106.09.1994, Dept of Civil Eng. and Surveying, The University of Newcastle, Australia.
25.
Blekkenhorst
, F.
, Ferrari
, G. M.
, van der Wekken
, C. J.
, and IJsseling
, F. P.
, 1986
, “Development of High Strength Low Alloy Steels for Marine Applications, Part 1: Results of Long-Term Exposure Tests on Commercially Available and Experimental Steels
,” Br. Corros. J., London
, 21
(3
), pp. 163
–176
.26.
Blekkenhorst
, F.
, Ferrari
, G. M.
, van der Wekken
, C. J.
, and IJsseling
, F. P.
, 1988
, “Development of High Strength Low Alloy Steels for Marine Applications, Part 2: Simulation of Marine Exposure of Steel by Means of Laboratory in Flowing Seawater
,” Br. Corros. J., London
, 23
(3
), pp. 165
–171
.27.
Melchers R. E., 1999, “Early and Longer Term Prediction of Immersion Corrosion of Steel in Marine Waters,” Proc. Conf. Corrosion & Prevention, Nov. 23–25, Sydney, Australia, Paper No. 44, (CD-ROM).
28.
Koshelev
, G. G.
, and Rozenfeld
, I. L.
, 1960
, “Corrosion Stability of Carbon and Low Alloy Steels in Seawater
,” Trudy Instituta Fizicheskoi Khimii.
, 8
, pp. 333
–344
(in Russian).29.
Friend, N. J., 1940, “Deterioration of Structures of Timber, Metal and Concrete Exposed to the Action of Seawater,” 18th Report of the Committee of the Institution of Civil Engineers, London.
30.
LaQue
, F. L.
, 1951
, “Corrosion testing
,” Proc. ASTM
, 51
, pp. 495
–582
.31.
LaQue, F. L., 1975, Marine Corrosion, John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY.
32.
IJsseling
, F. P.
, 1989
, “General Guidelines for Corrosion Testing for Marine Applications
,” Br. Corros. J., London
, 24
(1
), pp. 55
–78
.33.
Hadfield
, R. A.
, and Main
, S. A.
, 1936
, “Corrosion of Iron and Steel
,” J. Inst. Civil Engineers
, 3
, pp. 3
–126
, Discn., pp. 613–651.34.
Southwell
, C. R.
, and Alexander
, A. L.
, 1970
, “Corrosion of Metals in Tropical Waters—Structural Ferrous Metals
,” Materials Protection
, 9
(1
), pp. 179
–183
.35.
Fink, F. W., 1960, “Corrosion of Metals in Seawater,” Research and Development Report No. 46, Batelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, Ohio, For Office for Saline Water, Department of the Interior.
36.
Mercer
, A. D.
, and Lumbard
, E. A.
, 1995
, “Corrosion of Mild Steel in Water
,” Br. Corros. J., London
, 30
(1
), pp. 43
–55
.37.
Perrigo, L., 1997, “Cold Climate Corrosion and Transportation and Storage Problems,” Summary of a Discussion of Cold Climate Corrosion Issues, Australasian Corrosion Association Conference, Brisbane, Nov. 12.
38.
Biefer, G. J., 1977, “Exploratory Corrosion Tests in the Canadian Arctic,” Canmet Report 77-45, Minerals Research Program, Canada Center for Mineral and Energy Technology.
39.
Peterson
, M. H.
, and Lennox
, Jr, T. J.
, 1984
, “The Effects of Exposure Conditions on the Corrosion of Mild Steel, Copper, and Zinc in Seawater
,” Mat. Perf.
, 23
(3
), pp. 15
–18
.40.
Wormwell
, F.
, Nurse
, T. J.
, and Ison
, H. C. K.
, 1953
, “The Corrosion of Mild Steel Moving Rapidly in Salt Solutions and Natural Waters
,” J. Appl. Chem.
, 3
, pp. 275
–280
.41.
Buzovkina
, T. B.
, Aleksandrov
, V. A.
, Loginov
, V. B.
, Egorov
, E. S.
, and Yurchenko
, A. A.
, 1990
, “Effect of the Alkalinity of Water and Carbonates on the Initial Stages of Steel Corrosion in the Sea of Japan and the Black Sea
,” Prot. Met.
, 26
(4
), pp. 510
–512
.42.
Brown, T. L., and Lemay, H. E., 1981, Chemistry: the Central Science, Prentice Hall International, London.
43.
Parvizi
, M. S.
, Aladjem
, A.
, and Castle
, J. E.
, 1988
, “Behavior of 90-10 Cupronickel in Seawater
,” Int. Mater. Rev.
, 33
(4
), pp. 169
–200
.44.
Reinhart, F. M., 1974, “Corrosion of copper alloys in hydrospace,” in Corrosion in Natural Environments, ASTM STP 558, American Society for Testing and Materials, pp. 135–170.
45.
Sanders, P. F., and Maxwell, S., 1983, “Microfouling, Macrofouling, and Corrosion of Metal Test Specimens,” in Microbial Corrosion, The Metals Society, London, pp. 74–83.
46.
Provan
, J. W.
, and Rodriquez
, E. S.
, 1989
, “Development of a Markov Description of Pitting Corrosion
,” Corrosion (NACE)
, 45
(3
), pp. 178
–192
.47.
Turnbull
, A.
, 1993
, “Review of Modelling Pit Propagation Kinetics
,” Br. Corros. J., London
, 28
(4
), pp. 297
–308
.48.
Laycock
, P. J.
, and Scarf
, P. A.
, 1993
, “Exceedences, Extremes, Extrapolation and Order Statistics for Pits, Pitting and Other Localized Corrosion Phenomenon
,” Corrosion Science
, 35
(1–4
), pp. 135
–145
.49.
Shibata
, T.
, and Takeyama
, T.
, 1976
, “Pitting Corrosion as a Stochastic Process
,” Nature (London)
, 260
, pp. 315
–316
.50.
Sato
, M.
, 1976
, “Stochastic Process of Chloride Pit Generation in Passive Stainless Steels
,” J. Electrochem. Soc.
, 123
(8
), pp. 1197
–1199
.51.
Ahammed M., and Melchers, R. E., 1999, “Atmospheric Corrosion of Mild and Low Alloy Steels,” Research Report 180.03.1999, Department of Civil, Surveying, and Environmental Engineering, The University of Newcastle, Australia.
52.
Benarie
, M.
, and Lipfert
, F. L.
, 1986
, “A General Corrosion Function in Terms of Atmospheric Pollutant Concentrations and Rain pH
,” Atmos. Environ.
, 20
(10
), pp. 1947
–1958
.53.
Feliu
, S.
, Morcillo
, A.
, and Feliu
, Jr., S.
, 1993
, “The Prediction of Atmospheric Corrosion From Meteorological and Pollution Parameters—1. Annual Corrosion
,” Corrosion Science
, 34
(3
), pp. 403
–422
.54.
Gardiner, C. P., 1999, Corrosion Analysis of Bulk Carriers, PhD thesis, The University of Newcastle, Australia.
55.
Gardiner, C. P., and Melchers, R. E., 1998, “Corrosion Under Fine-Particle Porous Medium,” Research Report 170.10.1998, Department of Civil, Surv., and Env. Engineering, The University of Newcastle, Australia.
56.
Gardiner
, C. P.
, and Melchers
, R. E.
, 2001
, “Bulk Carrier Corrosion Modelling
,” Proc. ISOPE-2001
, 4
, pp. 609
–615
.57.
Gardiner, C. P., and Melchers, R. E., 1999, “Enclosed Atmospheric Corrosion in an Unloaded Bulk Carrier Cargo Hold,” Proc. Corrosion and Prevention-99, Sydney, Australia, Paper No. 45 (CD-ROM).
Copyright © 2003
by ASME
You do not currently have access to this content.
